Lianhe Zaobao

DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the 53rd Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 Oct. The survey, based on interviews with about 500 people, showed that inflation expectations for the coming year remained steady at 3.8% in September 2024, unchanged from June. Though inflation expectations have declined since June 2023, they remain above the 3.4% average since the index's launch in 2011. SMU Assistant Professor Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that despite economic uncertainty, inflation expectations have stabilised, helped by the strong Singapore dollar.

DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the 53rd Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 Oct. The survey, based on interviews with about 500 people, showed that inflation expectations for the coming year remained steady at 3.8% in September 2024, unchanged from June. Though inflation expectations have declined since June 2023, they remain above the 3.4% average since the index's launch in 2011. SMU Assistant Professor Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that despite economic uncertainty, inflation expectations have stabilised, helped by the strong Singapore dollar.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will launch two new programmes in 2025 to nurture leaders in the financial industry. One programme targets those at the managing director level and above to groom them for more senior roles, while the other caters to “high-potential middle-level professionals”, such as those at the senior vice-president and director levels. Additionally, MAS will further support and encourage financial institutions to send Singaporean leaders for overseas assignments. Alvin Tan, Minister of State for Trade and Industry announced this at the graduation dinner of the Asian Financial Leaders Programme on 2 October. The graduation dinner for the 2023/2024 cohort was jointly organised by SMU and the Human Capital Leadership Institute.

The Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) report, jointly released by DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), shows that local residents' overall inflation forecast has decreased from 4% in March to 3.8% in June. Those anticipating a decline in inflation cited reasons such as high interest rates maintained by central banks (36%) and a slowdown in global economic growth (32%). Conversely, those expecting inflation to rise pointed to the prolonged high interest rates by major economies' central banks (29%) and geopolitical uncertainties from conflicts between Hamas and Israel, and Ukraine and Russia (24.5%). SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that both perspectives regard global central bank policies as a significant factor affecting inflation trends. This cognitive bias prompts policymakers to delay interest rate normalisation measures to prevent a resurgence of inflation.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) report, jointly compiled by the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics with DBS Group, the pressure of tightening monetary policy and geopolitical turmoil, coupled with the rising demand after the recovery of the pandemic and the uncertain economic environment, has led local residents to project that the overall inflation rate one year ahead will rise to 4.6%, up from 3.8% in the last quarter. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, who leads this survey, noted that consumers have mixed views on the future direction of inflation, possibly because the monetary policy to curb price increases has yet to bear fruit. He explained that as an open and small international market, prices in Singapore may rise in the short term, and then experience a long-term downward trend

According to the research findings of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey jointly released by DBS Group and the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), the one-year-Ahead Inflation expectations fell to 4.0% in March 2024 from 4.2% in December 2023. The survey notes that in spite of uncertain geopolitical and socio-economic climates, the increasing demand for travel, food and beverage and accommodation might have met with a commensurate increase in supply, which led to mostly flattening of inflation expectations across the board. For the longer horizon, the five-year-ahead Consumer Price Index Inflation Expectations have since declined from 4.8% to 4.5% from December 2023 to March this year, noted SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, creator and founding principal investigator of the quarterly survey. He added that the current polled number remains slightly higher than the first quarter average of 4.3% polled since the survey's inception in September 2011 up till 2023.

Local residents' predictions for the overall inflation rate for the next year have declined for three consecutive quarters. According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey jointly published by DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), in March this year, local residents' predictions for the overall inflation rate for the next year decreased from 4.2% in December last year to 4%, although the decline has slowed down.

The one-year ahead headline inflation expectations dipped to 4.2% in December 2023, from 4.5% in September 2023, according to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey published jointly by SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) and DBS. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance, creator and Founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project Aurobindo Ghosh said, “In Singapore domestically, the moderation in expectations might have been slightly dampened by the 1% increase in goods and services tax in 2024, although Singaporeans opined that a slowdown in global growth might also limit any significant increase in overall price levels. The overall and component-wise inflation expectations of Singaporean consumers have largely declined, even after accommodating behavioural biases, indicating some levels of anchoring of medium-and long-term inflation expectations.”

Jobs in the financial sector are becoming increasingly international-oriented. It is estimated that nearly half of the positions will be of an international nature. Local financial leaders must master international capabilities to succeed in this field and compete with talents from all over the world for leadership positions. Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for Economic Policy Heng Swee Keat expressed these views when speaking at the graduation dinner of the Asian Financial Leadership Program on Tuesday (October 24).

金融界的工作日益面向国际，估计接近一半的职务会以国际性质为主，国人必须掌握国际能力才能在这个领域取得成功，与世界各地的人才角逐领导职位。副总理兼经济政策统筹部长王瑞杰星期二（10月24日）在亚洲金融领袖计划的毕业晚宴上讲话时，发表上述看法。

The latest Singapore Inflation Forecast Index report released by DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics shows that if accommodation and private transportation are not included, local residents' forecasts for the core inflation rate in the next year in September this year also increased from 4.8% in June to 4.6%. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Aurobindo Ghosh, who leads the survey, shared that Singapore’s supply chain has little connection with areas of military conflict, but if a war breaks out, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it will increase the uncertainty of the economic outlook. This may cause concerns among consumers and affect their expectations for prices and economic growth. He concluded that if local oil prices rise during and after military conflicts, it may have a short-term impact on prices and consumer sentiment.