Lianhe Zaobao

SMU and DBS released its quarterly survey, Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations, on 20 October 2026. The survey has found that most Singapore households expect domestic and global economic developments to push up inflation over the next year. Still, headline inflation expectations for the coming year came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous quarter’s reading. The latest print comes amid geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy concerns.

Led by SMU Professor of Finance and Director of the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics Zhang Hong, he noted that different household spending patterns could result in varying cost-of-living pressures. He said that although one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations held at 3.4%, expected transport inflation rose from 3.8 to 5%, while healthcare expectations remained at 4%. Prof Zhang added that different spending patterns can therefore produce different expected pressures on household budgets. He also noted that the stronger rise in longer-term core inflation expectations was worth watching, as expectations about future prices could influence how households save and spend.

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Yu Yang co-authored a study last February which examined the relationship between US bank branch closures and incidents of online fraud and identity theft. The report revealed that for every US bank branch that closed, the number of reported identity theft cases increased by an average of more than 163. Identity theft is the most common data privacy issue, encompassing crimes such as credit card fraud and unauthorised access to bank accounts. Regarding the relevance of this study to the situation in Singapore, Asst Prof Yu pointed out that the banking mechanisms discussed in the report also exist in Singapore, but the degree of influence may be different. She said that branches provide security through face-to-face interaction, where employees may detect suspicious signs and potentially stop a fraud just by asking one more question.

*Related Research: Grand Theft Identity: The Privacy Costs of Digitalization (working paper)

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Yu Yang co-authored a study last February which examined the relationship between US bank branch closures and incidents of online fraud and identity theft. The report revealed that for every US bank branch that closed, the number of reported identity theft cases increased by an average of more than 163. Identity theft is the most common data privacy issue, encompassing crimes such as credit card fraud and unauthorised access to bank accounts. Regarding the relevance of this study to the situation in Singapore, Asst Prof Yu pointed out that the banking mechanisms discussed in the report also exist in Singapore, but the degree of influence may be different. She said that branches provide security through face-to-face interaction, where employees may detect suspicious signs and potentially stop a fraud just by asking one more question.

*Related Research: Grand Theft Identity: The Privacy Costs of Digitalization (working paper)

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

 Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

Commenting on the "shrinkflation" phenomenon,  SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh said that "shrinkflation" typically occurs after significant inflation in both finished goods and raw materials. He said that Singapore, which relies heavily on imports for most food and consumer goods, is particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon. Asst Prof Ghosh also noted that milk powder, instant coffee and tea, ice cream, laundry detergent, and diapers are all everyday items purchased in bulk and pre-packaged. Therefore, they are more prone to "shrinkflation" compared to goods like rice, fruits, and vegetables, which are purchased by weight and priced per unit.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

On 21 October 2025, results of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SINDEX) Survey jointly released by DBS and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) showed that local respondents expect inflation to reach 3.3% in the following year, falling below 3.5% surveyed in June 2025 and marking the lowest level since 2021. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, local consumers generally believe that prices across major sectors will ease in the coming year