Lianhe Zaobao

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

 Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

Commenting on the "shrinkflation" phenomenon,  SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh said that "shrinkflation" typically occurs after significant inflation in both finished goods and raw materials. He said that Singapore, which relies heavily on imports for most food and consumer goods, is particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon. Asst Prof Ghosh also noted that milk powder, instant coffee and tea, ice cream, laundry detergent, and diapers are all everyday items purchased in bulk and pre-packaged. Therefore, they are more prone to "shrinkflation" compared to goods like rice, fruits, and vegetables, which are purchased by weight and priced per unit.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

On 21 October 2025, results of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SINDEX) Survey jointly released by DBS and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) showed that local respondents expect inflation to reach 3.3% in the following year, falling below 3.5% surveyed in June 2025 and marking the lowest level since 2021. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, local consumers generally believe that prices across major sectors will ease in the coming year

Affected by weak global economic growth and trade policy uncertainty, Singapore residents have become cautiously optimistic about the inflation trend in 2026. DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) jointly released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 July 2025, showing that Singapore residents' expectations for overall inflation in 2026 have fallen from 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.5% in June 2025, reaching the lowest level since the survey in December 2021.

Amid weak global economic growth and trade policy uncertainty, Singapore residents have turned cautiously optimistic about inflation in the coming 2026. According to the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SINDEX) jointly released on 22 July 2025 by DBS Bank and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), residents’ overall inflation expectations for the year ahead fell from 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.5% in June 2025, the lowest level since December 2021. SKBI’s findings showed that despite moderated price rises, residents still foresee slightly higher living costs, especially for housing and utilities, but most expect salary growth to remain stable in the range of 1%-5%.

DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the 53rd Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 Oct. The survey, based on interviews with about 500 people, showed that inflation expectations for the coming year remained steady at 3.8% in September 2024, unchanged from June. Though inflation expectations have declined since June 2023, they remain above the 3.4% average since the index's launch in 2011. SMU Assistant Professor Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that despite economic uncertainty, inflation expectations have stabilised, helped by the strong Singapore dollar.