Lianhe Zaobao

Affected by weak global economic growth and trade policy uncertainty, Singapore residents have become cautiously optimistic about the inflation trend in 2026. DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) jointly released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 July 2025, showing that Singapore residents' expectations for overall inflation in 2026 have fallen from 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.5% in June 2025, reaching the lowest level since the survey in December 2021.

Amid weak global economic growth and trade policy uncertainty, Singapore residents have turned cautiously optimistic about inflation in the coming 2026. According to the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SINDEX) jointly released on 22 July 2025 by DBS Bank and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), residents’ overall inflation expectations for the year ahead fell from 3.8% in March 2025 to 3.5% in June 2025, the lowest level since December 2021. SKBI’s findings showed that despite moderated price rises, residents still foresee slightly higher living costs, especially for housing and utilities, but most expect salary growth to remain stable in the range of 1%-5%.

DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the 53rd Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 Oct. The survey, based on interviews with about 500 people, showed that inflation expectations for the coming year remained steady at 3.8% in September 2024, unchanged from June. Though inflation expectations have declined since June 2023, they remain above the 3.4% average since the index's launch in 2011. SMU Assistant Professor Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that despite economic uncertainty, inflation expectations have stabilised, helped by the strong Singapore dollar.

DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the 53rd Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 22 Oct. The survey, based on interviews with about 500 people, showed that inflation expectations for the coming year remained steady at 3.8% in September 2024, unchanged from June. Though inflation expectations have declined since June 2023, they remain above the 3.4% average since the index's launch in 2011. SMU Assistant Professor Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that despite economic uncertainty, inflation expectations have stabilised, helped by the strong Singapore dollar.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will launch two new programmes in 2025 to nurture leaders in the financial industry. One programme targets those at the managing director level and above to groom them for more senior roles, while the other caters to “high-potential middle-level professionals”, such as those at the senior vice-president and director levels. Additionally, MAS will further support and encourage financial institutions to send Singaporean leaders for overseas assignments. Alvin Tan, Minister of State for Trade and Industry announced this at the graduation dinner of the Asian Financial Leaders Programme on 2 October. The graduation dinner for the 2023/2024 cohort was jointly organised by SMU and the Human Capital Leadership Institute.

The Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) report, jointly released by DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), shows that local residents' overall inflation forecast has decreased from 4% in March to 3.8% in June. Those anticipating a decline in inflation cited reasons such as high interest rates maintained by central banks (36%) and a slowdown in global economic growth (32%). Conversely, those expecting inflation to rise pointed to the prolonged high interest rates by major economies' central banks (29%) and geopolitical uncertainties from conflicts between Hamas and Israel, and Ukraine and Russia (24.5%). SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that both perspectives regard global central bank policies as a significant factor affecting inflation trends. This cognitive bias prompts policymakers to delay interest rate normalisation measures to prevent a resurgence of inflation.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) report, jointly compiled by the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics with DBS Group, the pressure of tightening monetary policy and geopolitical turmoil, coupled with the rising demand after the recovery of the pandemic and the uncertain economic environment, has led local residents to project that the overall inflation rate one year ahead will rise to 4.6%, up from 3.8% in the last quarter. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, who leads this survey, noted that consumers have mixed views on the future direction of inflation, possibly because the monetary policy to curb price increases has yet to bear fruit. He explained that as an open and small international market, prices in Singapore may rise in the short term, and then experience a long-term downward trend

According to the research findings of the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey jointly released by DBS Group and the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), the one-year-Ahead Inflation expectations fell to 4.0% in March 2024 from 4.2% in December 2023. The survey notes that in spite of uncertain geopolitical and socio-economic climates, the increasing demand for travel, food and beverage and accommodation might have met with a commensurate increase in supply, which led to mostly flattening of inflation expectations across the board. For the longer horizon, the five-year-ahead Consumer Price Index Inflation Expectations have since declined from 4.8% to 4.5% from December 2023 to March this year, noted SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, creator and founding principal investigator of the quarterly survey. He added that the current polled number remains slightly higher than the first quarter average of 4.3% polled since the survey's inception in September 2011 up till 2023.

Local residents' predictions for the overall inflation rate for the next year have declined for three consecutive quarters. According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey jointly published by DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), in March this year, local residents' predictions for the overall inflation rate for the next year decreased from 4.2% in December last year to 4%, although the decline has slowed down.

The one-year ahead headline inflation expectations dipped to 4.2% in December 2023, from 4.5% in September 2023, according to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey published jointly by SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) and DBS. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance, creator and Founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project Aurobindo Ghosh said, “In Singapore domestically, the moderation in expectations might have been slightly dampened by the 1% increase in goods and services tax in 2024, although Singaporeans opined that a slowdown in global growth might also limit any significant increase in overall price levels. The overall and component-wise inflation expectations of Singaporean consumers have largely declined, even after accommodating behavioural biases, indicating some levels of anchoring of medium-and long-term inflation expectations.”