CHINA ECONOMISTS EXPECT A ROCKY 2019

SKB Institute Director, Prof Dave Fernandez, spoke at the Chief China Economist Forum in Shanghai held on 5-6 January. The forum brings together annually the Chief China Economists from across the financial sector to discuss the most important issues facing the Mainland, with this year's conference titled, "Facing the Challenges: China's Choice in the Superpower Game." As the title suggests, much of the focus was on China-US trade relations where many participants were hopeful of a "ceasefire" between the two countries during 1Q. Nevertheless, most economists expect depreciation pressure on the CNY early in the year, though the consensus was that USDCNY would be below 7 by the end of 2019... [READ MORE]

LIKELY TRAJECTORY OF FED POLICY FAR FROM SETTLED

Principal Research Associate Thomas Lam and Director at SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics David Fernandez believe that the December 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting will likely generate more buzz. In this piece, they explore some of the complexities surrounding future Federal Reserve policy.

(Thomas Lam of SKBI had participated in a prominent economic survey on the US economy recently. The Federal Reserve Survey of Professional Forecasters, one of the most prestigious and recognised forecasting surveys, was released on 13 Nov 2018. Here’s the official link. See page 7 for the attribution.)  [READ MORE]

PANEL: DEMYSTIFYING ICOs, TOKENS AND DIGITAL CURRENCIES

The Institute led two seminars on FinTech. On 25 October, Prof. Dave Fernandez moderated a panel on “Compliance around Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and Stable Tokens” at the Institute of Banking & Finance (IBF) Singapore. His panel included the Head of Research for R3, a Researcher from the NUS Centre for Banking & Finance Law, and a private-sector investor in cyrptocurrency custody. Then, on 12 November, the Institute hosted a high-level panel on “Demystifying ICOs, tokens, and digital currencies,” as part of the 2018 Singapore FinTech Festival. Panelists included the National Bank of Cambodia, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, the European Central Bank, and from the private sector, R3 & EY.... [READ MORE]

VIEWS FROM THE IMF-WORLD BANK ANNUAL MEETINGS

SKB Institute Director, Prof Dave Fernandez, and Principal Research Associate, Tom Lam, attended the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bali, Indonesia. The Annual Meetings are a flagship event for a broad spectrum of global participants, from central bankers to private sector representatives, to discuss global challenges. The meetings are routinely held in the US (Washington, DC) for two successive years, but rotate to another member country in the third year. Singapore and Tokyo were the two Asian cities that hosted the meetings in 2006 and 2012, respectively... [READ MORE]

FED OFFICIAL BULLARD SPEAKS IN SINGAPORE

The SKB Institute hosted Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard on Monday 8 October where he delivered the OMFIF Foundation City Lecture with remarks titled “Some Consequences of the U.S. Growth Surprise.” SKB Institute Director and LKCSB Professor of the Practice of Finance, Dave Fernandez, welcomed the over 140 guests and later led the Q&A session, together with Mark Burgess, former President and CEO of Australia’s Future Fund. In his talk, Bullard noted that “The U.S. growth surprise has been a factor in allowing the FOMC to normalize its policy rate along a projected path, with attendant consequences for global financial markets.” Bullard also pointed out that growth surprised outside the U.S. and that in 2017, “relatively speaking, the growth surprise was larger outside the U.S,” he said. This coincided with a period of relative US dollar weakness. In 2018, the U.S. continued to surprise on the upside while other major economies look unlikely to do as well as they did the year before, coinciding with a period of relative U.S. dollar strength... [READ MORE]