The Business Times

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

SMU’s Lee Kong Chian School of Business, in collaboration with DBS Group Research and partly funded by DBS, released the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations survey on 20 January 2026 which showed that the majority of Singaporeans expect headline inflation to rise slightly in 2026 as a result of global high trade policies followed by geopolitical uncertainties, higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal responsibility measures, such as higher value-added taxes. Commenting on the survey result, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh said that this comes as policy uncertainty remained elevated throughout 2025. Asst Prof Ghosh said that the global economy and the equity market, has been surprisingly resilient despite the onslaught of conflicts, tariffs and disruptions. Against this backdrop, he added that consumers in Singapore, as part of a small open economy, weighed in their opinion that overall inflation (would) be slightly higher across the board in the medium term.

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh discusses how Budget 2025 will need to consider both short-term incentives and long-term challenges amid an upcoming election and geopolitical uncertainties. 

[Watch the feature here]

SMU hosted a conference on artificial intelligence (AI) in business and finance on 17 Oct at its campus. Panellists included Anand Sachdev, Managing Director and Country Manager of ING Bank Singapore; Fabiano Siufi, Area Chief Financial Officer of Microsoft ASEAN; Vincent Lim, CEO of Eco Sustainability Group, and Ken Guo, CEO of Revulate Technologies. They discussed the need for businesses to focus on reskilling amid the growing integration of AI in business operations as well as the sustainability implications of AI. The session was moderated by SMU Professor of Finance Zhang Hong.

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate.

In this commentary, Leo Krippner and Thomas Lam, Research Fellows at the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, underscore that although the Fed remains vigilant on inflation, it will likely continue its tightening cycle with caution, with an eye on market expectations about future policy actions and financial conditions.

Singaporeans' expectations for headline inflation for the year ahead has fallen, down to 3.9 per cent from 4.1 per cent last quarter due to a dampened growth outlook, according to this quarter’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) results. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and founding principal investigator of the DBS-SKBI SInDEx project Aurobindo Ghosh attributed the high inflationary expectations to the uncertainty arising from the continuing conflict in Ukraine, and shared how that has led to a rise in global oil prices and a potential slowdown in major economies. DBS Group Research is a co-sponsor and research partner with the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI).

SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics’ principal researcher Thomas Lam and the Institute’s Director Professor David Fernandez seek to tease out the likely impact on global growth and inflation, notwithstanding the fluidity of the current geopolitical conflict in Europe.

In a commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics’ principal researcher Thomas Lam and the institute’s director Professor David Fernandez highlighted the ongoing hoo-ha surrounding central bank policy globally as the divergence between the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China intensifies.

The staggering pace of demand for environmental, social and governance (ESG) expertise amid scarce candidates has led to a demand-supply mismatch globally. In Singapore, there has been a recent surge in ESG courses to develop a suitable pipeline of talent here. For example, the new Singapore Green Finance Centre [an initiative of SMU and Imperial College Business School], backed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, offers courses across various levels – undergraduate, post-graduate, continuing and professional education. SMU's Advanced Certificate in Sustainability and Sustainable Businesses course – which costs up to S$10,272 for international participants – has been fully subscribed till March 2022.