The Business Times

SMU and DBS released its quarterly survey, Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations, on 20 October 2026. The survey has found that most Singapore households expect domestic and global economic developments to push up inflation over the next year. Still, headline inflation expectations for the coming year came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous quarter’s reading. The latest print comes amid geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy concerns.

Led by SMU Professor of Finance and Director of the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics Zhang Hong, he noted that different household spending patterns could result in varying cost-of-living pressures. He said that although one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations held at 3.4%, expected transport inflation rose from 3.8 to 5%, while healthcare expectations remained at 4%. Prof Zhang added that different spending patterns can therefore produce different expected pressures on household budgets. He also noted that the stronger rise in longer-term core inflation expectations was worth watching, as expectations about future prices could influence how households save and spend.

DBS Group Research and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) released the latest Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) which showed that households in Singapore have modestly raised their expectations for near-term price increases, driven by mounting global uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and the spectre of new tariffs. The one-year-ahead headline inflation expectations climbed to an average of 3.4% in June, from 3.3% in March. 

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, and the principal investigator of the SInDEx project, observed that the results of DBS-SKBI SInDEx show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have marginally increased in the June 2026 survey compared to March 2026, suggesting the pre-emptive tightening might have had the desired effect. Asst Prof Ghosh noted that this anchoring of core expectations indicates that while short-term geopolitical risks are evident, “longer-term inflation expectations in Singapore seem to be more anchored”.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

 Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey, the majority of Singaporeans expect inflation to increase in the next year due to global trade policies and rising fuel prices. SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics and DBS Group Research are co-sponsors and research partners of the survey, which is now in its 59th edition, and it was led by SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh. The survey polls 500 individuals representing a cross-section of Singapore households.

 Commenting on inflation, Asst Prof Ghosh said the potential of a lingering supply crunch and surge in prices of commodities, such as oil, natural gas and by-products of the petrochemical industry, poses “a clear and present threat to the surge in inflationary pressures globally”. He added that central banks around the world, including the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are keeping a close watch while negotiations are ongoing to resolve the crisis, and showing positive signs for the continuous opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the fragile ceasefire takes shape.

SMU’s Lee Kong Chian School of Business, in collaboration with DBS Group Research and partly funded by DBS, released the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations survey on 20 January 2026 which showed that the majority of Singaporeans expect headline inflation to rise slightly in 2026 as a result of global high trade policies followed by geopolitical uncertainties, higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal responsibility measures, such as higher value-added taxes. Commenting on the survey result, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh said that this comes as policy uncertainty remained elevated throughout 2025. Asst Prof Ghosh said that the global economy and the equity market, has been surprisingly resilient despite the onslaught of conflicts, tariffs and disruptions. Against this backdrop, he added that consumers in Singapore, as part of a small open economy, weighed in their opinion that overall inflation (would) be slightly higher across the board in the medium term.

SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh discusses how Budget 2025 will need to consider both short-term incentives and long-term challenges amid an upcoming election and geopolitical uncertainties. 

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SMU hosted a conference on artificial intelligence (AI) in business and finance on 17 Oct at its campus. Panellists included Anand Sachdev, Managing Director and Country Manager of ING Bank Singapore; Fabiano Siufi, Area Chief Financial Officer of Microsoft ASEAN; Vincent Lim, CEO of Eco Sustainability Group, and Ken Guo, CEO of Revulate Technologies. They discussed the need for businesses to focus on reskilling amid the growing integration of AI in business operations as well as the sustainability implications of AI. The session was moderated by SMU Professor of Finance Zhang Hong.

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate.

In this commentary, Leo Krippner and Thomas Lam, Research Fellows at the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, underscore that although the Fed remains vigilant on inflation, it will likely continue its tightening cycle with caution, with an eye on market expectations about future policy actions and financial conditions.

Singaporeans' expectations for headline inflation for the year ahead has fallen, down to 3.9 per cent from 4.1 per cent last quarter due to a dampened growth outlook, according to this quarter’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) results. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and founding principal investigator of the DBS-SKBI SInDEx project Aurobindo Ghosh attributed the high inflationary expectations to the uncertainty arising from the continuing conflict in Ukraine, and shared how that has led to a rise in global oil prices and a potential slowdown in major economies. DBS Group Research is a co-sponsor and research partner with the SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI).