The Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) report, jointly released by DBS Group and SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI), shows that local residents' overall inflation forecast has decreased from 4% in March to 3.8% in June. Those anticipating a decline in inflation cited reasons such as high interest rates maintained by central banks (36%) and a slowdown in global economic growth (32%). Conversely, those expecting inflation to rise pointed to the prolonged high interest rates by major economies' central banks (29%) and geopolitical uncertainties from conflicts between Hamas and Israel, and Ukraine and Russia (24.5%). SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Aurobindo Ghosh, who is the founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project, noted that both perspectives regard global central bank policies as a significant factor affecting inflation trends. This cognitive bias prompts policymakers to delay interest rate normalisation measures to prevent a resurgence of inflation.
According to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) survey released by DBS Group and SMU's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singaporeans believe that inflation levels have peaked and will start to slow down over the next year. The quarterly online survey, now in its 49th edition, found that Singaporeans’ inflation expectations dropped from 4.9% in June 2023 to 4.5% in September. SMU Assistant Professor of finance Aurobindo Ghosh, and founding Principal Investigator of the SInDEx project, noted that recent academic literature has revealed certain behavioural biases creeping into responses of those who are exposed to more volatile grocery and gasoline prices when asked about subjective inflation expectations. As such, the survey has attempted to address some of these biases through multiple methods of finding inflation expectations of respondents while providing them with relevant information to make a more informed judgement, said Asst Prof Ghosh.
Four in 10 Singaporeans expect inflation to decline in the next 12 months. Fewer Singaporeans expect inflation to decline in the next 12 months, data from the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Survey (SinDEx) of DBS and Singapore Management University (SMU) showed.
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