In an interview, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Aurobindo Ghosh discussed about the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey published jointly by SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) and DBS, which found that half of Singaporeans expect inflation to decline this year. Asst Prof Ghosh opined that this was due to a declining trend and that it did not come as a surprise that people expected prices to be falling in the medium term. He also shared that fewer Singaporeans expecting their salaries to be cut by over 5% could be a sign of the job market holding up.
The one-year ahead headline inflation expectations dipped to 4.2% in December 2023, from 4.5% in September 2023, according to the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) Survey published jointly by SMU’s Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) and DBS. SMU Assistant Professor of Finance, creator and Founding Principal Investigator of the Quarterly DBS-SKBI SInDEx Project Aurobindo Ghosh said, “In Singapore domestically, the moderation in expectations might have been slightly dampened by the 1% increase in goods and services tax in 2024, although Singaporeans opined that a slowdown in global growth might also limit any significant increase in overall price levels. The overall and component-wise inflation expectations of Singaporean consumers have largely declined, even after accommodating behavioural biases, indicating some levels of anchoring of medium-and long-term inflation expectations.”
In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions on fear or speculation.
In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.
The Citi-SMU Financial Literacy programme launched by SMU and Citi Singapore (with the support of Citi Foundation) aims to educate young adults aged between 17 and 30 with essential personal finance knowledge and skills applicable to their life stage. This will give them a firm foundation in managing their money and a financial head-start early in their lives. The programme is the brainchild of SMU’s Associate Professor of Finance Jeremy Goh. Since its launched, close to 210 SMU students and more than 120 students from 5 polytechnics and 3 ITE colleges have been trained as financial literacy coaches. The programme has also engaged over 18,000 young adults on a wide range of topics. As testament to its success, an impact assessment on 700 participants conducted by Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, who is also Principal Investigator of the programme, found that 60 per cent of the participants said they improved their basic understanding of financial literacy concepts. 86 per cent strongly agree on the need to start a regular savings plan compared to 66 per cent before attending the programme. The programme also saw 20 per cent increase in the number of students who said they were now investing more prudently. Vivian Quark Zhi Xian, student trainer in the programme, believes that financial literacy among the millennial is more critical than ever as they now face higher cost of living, greater market volatility and longer life expectancies.